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In recent years, China’s ambitious plans to launch satellite megaconstellations have sparked widespread concern among space experts and environmentalists. With the introduction of the Guowang and Qianfan constellations, China aims to deploy thousands of satellites into orbit, potentially cluttering space with debris that could have long-lasting consequences. As these projects unfold, the global community is left to grapple with the implications of increased space congestion and the risk of collisions that could last for generations.

China’s Rocket Problem

China’s space endeavors have not been without controversy. The nation’s space administration has faced scrutiny for its handling of rocket launches, particularly regarding the disposal of rocket stages. In 2022, several launches for the Tiangong space station resulted in uncontrolled rocket reentries, causing alarm when one incident forced Spain to close its northern airspace. Controlled reentries, which require additional fuel and resources, ensure safety by preventing debris from causing harm on the ground.

However, China’s current practice involves leaving spent rocket boosters in low Earth orbit, where they can remain for over a hundred years. According to Jim Shell, a consultant specializing in orbital debris, China plans over 1,000 launches to deploy its constellations, each leaving behind rocket stages in persistent orbits. If unaddressed, this could lead to a significant increase in orbital debris, heightening the risk of collisions in space.

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China’s Satellites and Rockets Are Adding to Congestion in Orbit

The deployment of China’s Guowang and Qianfan constellations is further contributing to the congestion in low Earth orbit. The Long March 6A and 8 rockets used for these launches are leaving their upper stages at altitudes between 447 and 484 miles, far above the recommended global threshold. This results in less atmospheric drag, allowing debris to persist for decades. The Guowang and Qianfan satellites orbit even higher, at approximately 621 miles above Earth.

Although newer rocket models, such as the Yuanzheng-2, have the capability to deorbit themselves, many of the older models responsible for uncontrolled reentries are still in use. As China continues to develop reusable medium-lift rockets, the handling of reentries remains uncertain. With plans to increase production of the Long March 5B and Long March 8 rockets, the potential for increased space debris looms large.

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A Lack of Transparency

Transparency has been a recurring issue in China’s space activities. Despite having the Yuanzheng-2 rockets that can perform controlled reentries, it remains unclear if these will be used extensively for the Guowang and Qianfan launches. China’s track record of disregarding best practices has been a point of contention. In 2022, former NASA Administrator Bill Nelson criticized China for not sharing trajectory information during an uncontrolled rocket reentry, emphasizing the importance of international cooperation in space safety.

Chinese officials have often dismissed criticism as anti-China propaganda. However, experts like Harvard astronomer Jonathan McDowell have highlighted the issues with China’s reentry practices, calling them objectively worse than those of other countries. The need for greater transparency and adherence to international standards is crucial to mitigate the risks posed by space debris.

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The Global Space Debris Problem

China is not alone in contributing to the growing problem of space debris. SpaceX’s Starlink constellation has also faced criticism for its impact on scientific observations and the potential for Kessler Syndrome—a scenario where collisions in space create a cascade of further collisions. With over 6,700 Starlink satellites in orbit and plans to launch many more, the risk of space congestion and debris accumulation is a global concern.

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets perform controlled reentries, but the sheer number of satellites still poses challenges for astronomers and the global scientific community. Reflective surfaces on Starlink satellites obstruct observations by ground-based telescopes, complicating astronomical research. As more nations and companies pursue satellite megaconstellations, the need for coordinated efforts to address space debris and ensure sustainable space exploration becomes increasingly urgent.

As we navigate the era of satellite megaconstellations, the question remains: how can the global community effectively manage space debris and ensure the long-term sustainability of our orbital environment?

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